What is the equation for probability of paternity (POP)?

The probability of paternity (POP) is a crucial concept in the context of forensic genetics and paternity testing. The correct formula relates the combined paternity index (CPI), which measures how much more likely an individual is to be the biological father compared to a random man, to prior odds, which reflects the initial likelihood of paternity before genetic evidence is considered.

In this formula, the numerator consists of CPI multiplied by prior odds, which effectively calculates the adjusted likelihood of paternity by taking into account the previously established odds. The denominator, which includes both this product and the complement of prior odds (1 - prior odds), ensures that the resulting probability is appropriately normalized to yield a value between 0 and 1.

This formulation effectively balances the genetic evidence with prior beliefs about paternity, allowing for a more accurate calculation of the probability that a man is the biological father based on the available genetic information. This balance is essential in forensic applications where the stakes of paternity testing can be high.

The other options lack the correct structure or components needed for properly calculating the POP. Some may include inappropriate elements or exclude critical components needed for this probability calculation, leading to incorrect interpretations of the evidence in determining paternity.